Big Guns, Tree-gun, and Election

 

I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Wish all members Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.  The blessing goes particularly to one of our young member, Dr. KWONG, who defeated the Kowloon City District Council Chairman LAU Wai Wing in Whampoa West in the 2015 District Council Election.  My wish also go to “Tree Gun”, which is the name better known of the ex-District Councilor Christopher CHUNG Shu Kun.  He was defeated by a newbie TSUI Chi Kin in Yue Wan District.  It was said that TSUI decided to run the election to challenge the “big gun” only on the last day of the nomination period.  What newspapers described TSUI was that he was that he was almost never heard of in the political field.  Of course my wish here is not slightly comparable to the celebration held outside Tree Gun’s to-be-ex-office when the news broke out that he was voted out.  Champagne bottles were opened, poppers were set off, and there came as usual Paula TSUI Siu Fung’s celebration song for losers.

Elections are too common.  When you read this Editorial, the results of the Medical Council election should have been known.  There is only one young candidate this year.  See if he can make it.  Next Year, in 2016, which is just a few days ahead, there will be new office bearers election for the HKMA, the Medical Functional Constituency election for the Legislative Council, and the Election Committee Subsector election for electing the Chief Executive.  

It is always interesting to speculate potential candidates and results of elections.  Legislative Council election is for big guns.  I wonder if any young doctor or newbie will run for the Medical Constituency election.  LEUNG Ka Lau has been our Legislator for 2 terms.  He was first elected in 2008 (2217 votes) when he ran against KWOK Ka Ki (1869 votes), who was the Councilor of the Medical Constituency at that time, HO Pak Leung (2138 votes) and YEUNG Chiu Fat (580 votes).  LEUNG succeeded to stay in the LEGCO in 2012 by beating TSE Hung Hing by a lead of 2336 votes (4541 against 2205 votes).  Although the 2012 result was promising, I speculate that LEUNG will not run for another term.

It would be a wise bet to put your money on Ho Pak Leung.  From limited statistics, HO shared the same group of voters with LEUNG (adding up to around 4500).  Although he is a microbiologist, I guess he has the macroscopic wisdom to enter the playing field.  If you are to bet on who would come out as candidates, a better bet would be on TSE Hung Hing.  TSE is the Immediate Past President of the HKMA.  He might also run for the Presidency of the HKMA just like in 2012.  However, he has added advantage compared to 2012 as he is now a Justice of Peace and might gain much support from pro-governmental voters.

If my memory does not fail me, I remember reading in newspaper some time ago that CHOI Kin would like to run for the LEGCO and the HKMA Presidency in 2016.  Appeared as the “Angry Man” of the HKMA, CHOI has an out-spoken image.  This has been more so with his full-of-sound-bites-if-not-wisdom criticism against the current President of the HKMA.  CHOI has been very successful in various elections.  However, he has never been a candidate for the LEGCO.  If CHOI Has not changed his mind, he needs to take care of the fact that TSE shares the same group of voters with him from the private sector and from the HKMA.  One obvious difference between CHOI and TSE would be their attitude towards the Umbrella Movement.

Of course, there can be other candidates who are surely capable of getting more than 2000 votes to take part.  There can also be spoilers to intervene.  Prediction is never easy.  

While it is interesting to speculate about the LEGCO election, it is difficult to arouse discussion in lunch meetings about the HKMA Presidency election.  Between 2004 and 2015, we have CHOI Kin as President for 3 terms, TSE Hung Hing for 2 terms, and SHIH Tai Cho whose term will end in 2016.  We were only given the chance to cast our votes twice.  Once was CHOI Kin against FUNG Yee Leung in 2004, and the other was CHOI Kin against YEUNG Chiu Fat in 2010.  For the 2 terms of TSE, for one term of CHOI, and for the current term of Presidency of SHIH, they were all “elected” ipso facto.  Each time, there was only one candidate nominated for the post and no voting was needed.  I speculated that it did not happen that there was only one person coming out to take the challenge.  However, negotiation was preferred to election.  Deals were made among a few.  For members, they could not ask what believes the candidates held towards important issues.  The only candidate did not need to make any promise to all and there was no problem of failure to cash his promise in his term.  In the term 2012 to 2014, there was election of the Chief Executive.  In the current term of 2014 to 2016, there was the Hong Kong Electoral Reform consultation and legislative proposal.  The role of the President was vital in leading the HKMA to take part in these issues.  We were not able to ask, to understand, to challenge or to choose.  We could not even vote the candidate out because there was no other choice.  Some might view this as a sign of unity.  However, something that feels good does not mean that it is healthy.  For example, gaining weight continuously is surely not healthy.

The traditional view is that elections are for big guns.  However, with the recent “Tree-gun Incident”, let us see if this view point will hold true in the coming elections.  

(Source: HKMA News December 2015)